So, I'm sure I've mentioned it several times already, and I'm also sure that the 3 people who read this blog already know, I worked in the housing industry for 9 years until getting laid off. I watched a lot of people dive in headfirst into deals that they really should never have been allowed to get themselves into, and, at least when it came to friends, I would do little more than attempt to educate them, briefly, on the possibility that this was a terrible financial decision to embark upon. Of course back then I thought things would get bad, but honestly, I spend many years thinking "things are only going to get downhill from here" concerning any great number of things, and as such will occasionally hold my opinion in check due to what I think might simply be a bit of conspiracy theory gone haywire within the confines of my own brain. Not that I don't yell and scream about it anyhow, but I do recognize the fact that such rants are proven wrong a lot of the time. Of course with housing, things got a lot worse than I ever imagined, and they are destined to get even more so. So, I was right this time. Stupids.
I redated an old fling some years ago, around the time of the housing peak it was, in late 2005. The first go'round we were together for over 3 years, so it was a little more than just a casual encounter the second time, at least as far as emotional content goes. While it was brief, and likely not the wisest of choices either of us could've/should've made, one of the few things I remember her asking me (and I can only assume this was to reassess my lack of maturity that may have been a problem the first time perhaps?) was if and when I was planning on buying a house. I gave her a 15 minute diatribe about why housing was far too expensive and out of control during this current mania, and that yes, eventually, if I wanted to stay in one area for a very long time, I would seek out a relatively affordable purchase to ascertain, once the market regained some sense of um... sense. As usual my lengthy answer to her yes/no question died on the spot never to be spoken of again, but back then any thought processes/conclusions such as mine were usually relegated to those of the broke, lazy, or irresponsible. She had recently purchased a 20-year-old starter home in a shit area for 1/3 of a million dollars, but of course, I was the dumb one back then for renting an apartment, as far as HGTV would tell it. Again, I was right this time. Stupids.
So, to get to the point of this mess, if there indeed is one, I submit the following blanket statement, without whipping out fancy charts, graphs, or even further knowledge: I predict that housing is to hit a continual decline for years to come. There is no end to this mess in sight, and won't be for a long time, if ever. Why? Because median incomes are currently set to plummet. They were barely treading water under Fuhkya, and are now crashing just as low as unemployment aims high. The historic ratio of 3:1 for housing price to median income must be reestablished, and I think these two numbers will be chasing one another down to a serious bottom that, quite literally, may take several generations to play out. I've been in the market for a home for over 4 years, and I'm still waiting, likely to do so for a considerable amount of time in the future. By the way, I'd rather not be right this time. Stupids.
Finally, one of my grammaws passed away yesterday. I dedicate this rant to her, although I wished I could have tied something about education herein, since she was the member of a local school board for a great many years. Rest easy.
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